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Werder Bremen vs M'gladbach

Fri 27 Nov 2026, 00:00 UTC · Round 11 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Werder Bremen win: 45.5%

Draw: 23.7%

M'gladbach win: 30.9%

Predicted: Werder Bremen

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 53.3%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 50.8%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.67

More corners: Werder Bremen (50.4% home / 49.6% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: M'gladbach

Yes

Probability M'gladbach wins or draws: 60.8%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Werder Bremen Clearest lean of the available outcomes (46% vs next-best 31%). (46.0% model probability) Medium

Favorite Avoids Defeat M'gladbach win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (61.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.